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NFL  |  Dec 18, 2014
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars
-3½-102
  at  PINNACLE
in 28m

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5

Neither of these teams is playing very good football right now, but it’s clear that the Titans have been playing much worse than the Jaguars of late. The Titans have lost eight in a row coming in with five of those losses coming by 14 points or more. They have rarely been competitive, and they seem to have quit on their season.

It’s clear that the Jaguars have not quit this season. They have played three competitive games in a row that started with a 25-24 home win over the Giants. They did lose to the Texans 13-27 at home the next week, but that game was more competitive than the final score would indicate. Last week, they went into Baltimore and hung tough for four quarters, eventually losing by a final of 12-20 as 14-point underdogs.

Jacksonville has only been outgained by more than 71 yards once in its last nine games overall. That shows that it has been highly competitive over this stretch, actually outgaining three teams in the process. Tennessee has been outgained by at least 50 yards in 10 of its last 11 games overall, and by more than 100 yards a whopping six times.

The Jaguars have actually been playing some pretty good defense here of late. They held the Giants to 329 total yards, the Texans to just 304 total yards, and the Ravens to just 312 total yards in their last three games, respectively. I also like that they have stability at the quarterback position as Blake Bortles is clearly getting better as he goes.

The Titans have been awful defensively all season. They are giving up 27.9 points and 378.7 yards per game this season, including 30.3 points and 375.0 yards per game while going 1-6 on the road. They are getting outscored by an average of 13.3 points per game on the road this season. They have given up 36 or more points in three of their last four games overall.

Tennessee is down to its third-string quarterback in Charlie Whitehurst as both Jake Locker and Zach Mettenberger are out with injuries. It has had no stability at the quarterback position all year. It is scoring just 16.5 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense at 307.9 yards per game. This Jacksonville defense should shut down Whitehurst and company with the way it is playing right now.

Jacksonville is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight meetings with Tennessee. It actually outplayed the Titans in the first meeting of the season, but lost 14-16 on the road and will want revenge. It outgained the Titans 379-290 for the game, or by 89 total yards. Blake Bortles went 32 of 46 passing for 336 yards with one touchdown and one pick in one of his best performances of the season.

The Titans are 3-10-1 ATS in all games this season. Tennessee is 1-9 ATS when playing with 6 or fewer days of rest this year. The Titans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after scoring 14 points or less in their previous game. Tennessee is 1-9 ATS off one or more consecutive losses this season. The Jaguars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Bet the Jaguars Thursday.

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers
-10-115
  at  BMAKER
in 2d

1* Free Play Packers.

Last week I gave you a free play on the Jacksonville Jaguars, an easy winner that almost took the game outright. This week I’m looking at a larger favorite, but one which I think has a number of different situational, motivational and strong trend based reasons working in its favor; I definitely feel that the Green Bay Packers are worth a second look in this spot. 

The Packers five game win streak would get snapped in last week’s listless 21-13 setback at Buffalo, however take note that it was the second straight week that Green Bay failed to cover the spread. A date vs. the inconsistent Buccaneers is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though in my opinion, Tampa is coming off its fourth straight SU loss in last week’s 19-17 setback at Carolina. The Packers are in a dog fight with Detroit for the NFC North’s top seed, added incentive today to take full advantage of their weaker opponent. Note that Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss as a favorite, while Tampa Bay is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after scoring 20 points or less in three straight games. At this time of year, “situations” become very a important tool for handicappers, consider a play on GREEN BAY this weekend.

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals
+9½-125
  at  5DIMES
in 3d

My overall FB run is at 84-48-1, or 64%. I have won 5 of my L7 NFL football releases. This Sunday is the highest-rated pro football card of the season. As the biggest big game hunter in the business, I am proud to release my NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR and 10-3 BEST BET PLAY. If you follow me, you will get rich.

Play Arizona, game 130.

At 11-3, Arizona owns the best record in the NFC with Seattle just one game behind them at 10-4. The Seahawks beat the Cardinals, 19-3 back on November 23. Since then, Seattle's defense has continued to dominate. The problem is that the Seahawks offense has sputtered, big-time. The Cardinals have backup QB, Ryan Lindley calling the plays here. Not a rookie anymore, Linley has become a mature, intelligent team player. With the NFC West lead on the line, I expect head coach Bruce Arians to get his chemistry-rich team up once again here. The Cardinals are 7-0 straight up at home, going 6-1ATS. With running back, Kerwyn Williams finding his stride, this will allow Lindley time to find his talented corps of receivers, Fitzgerald, Floyd, and Brown. The Arizona offense can eat up enough clock to stay in this game. On defense, the Cardinals will bring the sixth best rushing "D" in the league here and slow down the Seahawks only offensive threat in running back, Marshawn Lynch. With quarterback, Russell Wilson still struggling and the offense really spluttering in the pass, I don't expect Seattle to light up the scoreboard here. Arizona is 6-0 ATS their  L6 games played at home, 7-1 ATS their L8 games played in December, 12-3 ATS their L15 vs. the NFC, and 16-5 ATS their L21 games played overall. Take the points here. Play Arizona. Thank you.

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